What are the chances, honestly?

[jbugg]

My daughter has filed a fiance visa. Her fiance was illegal in the US for 7 years and was recently given a voluntary departure. He complied with the terms of the departure, left on time and is currently in Mexico. He lawyer said to allow 9-10 months for all the paperwork and he should be able to come back. He said it would get denied because of illegality when he was in the US but she could file a waiver and there is a very good chance it would be approved and he could come back. Reading many immigration forums and having heard from someone who lives in Mexico I am wondering is there a realistic chance of him coming back to this country in 9-10 month or even at all? Last week my daughter heard from the lawyer, he is on some immigration advisory board, and he said there is a possibility of changes coming in Mexico in the summer that would make if difficult for the fiance visa to go through so he is wanting her to go to Mexico and get married and then file new paperwork. Where does this all end? Could he really come back within a year or is this going to draw out into years? Very frustrated here. Thanks

[Salsa2]

Chances are good!

Here's the timeline of one of our members, MiSantito:

1/4/08 - Mailed I-129F to VSC
3/17/08 - I-129f - Approved!
4/4/08 - Rc'd Open Appt.
6/23/08 - Waiver Appointment in CDJ

As you can see, they are on track to hopefully complete the process in about 6 months, filing in Mexico. Most of our members with good waiver packets get approved at their waiver appointment, but there is a chance the waiver will not be approved same day and then it will take 8-12 months longer. (This happened to us).

It is slower to get married first and then file. It will take about a year from time of filing the I-130 to the time of your first appointment in Juarez.

I do not know of any upcoming changes to the Fiance visa process. Have your attorney explain what he heard to you in more detail!

All of this assumes that the fiance does not have a criminal record and that he only EWI'd once and never left the US until his voluntary departure.

[Adriane]

Fiance visas have always been approved at CDJ at the same rate as spousal visas- we have several success stories here, members Kitkat1, Jancy, Azul y Vampy, ShellyFCO, InLimbo and I know there are others.

Will your future son-in-law be eligible for a waiver? That's really the only thing I would be concerned about. Does he have any criminal record? How many times did he enter the US illegally?

Applying for a fiancee visa is really much, much faster than applying for a spousal visa regardless of where in the world he is or where they get married. For spousal visas you must wait for an appointment (which can take several months) whereas with fiancee visas you can go to the consulate as soon as your case is complete. He will need to file an I-601 waiver, which may be approved right away or may be referred to the backlog for further review which takes about a year. But the approval rates are the same for fiancees and spouses.

What stage are you in the process? To begin you need to file an I-129f if you are applying as fiancees.

I highly recommend you read the links in my signature- the first will help you understand the process, the second will explain some reasons why he may not be eligible for the waiver and the third & fourth will help you understand what your daughter will need to 'prove' in order to have her waiver successfully approved.

On a good note, CDJ has the highest approval rate for I-601s in the world with about 80%. As a site, our members have an above 95% approval rate (including appeals, MTRs and second tries.)

Good luck and we'll help you through.

[MiSantito]

As you can see from the above post my fiance visa was approved in just a couple months. We could have already been in CDJ but want to wait until I get out of work for the summer. We have to file a waiver because he has been in the US for 4 years. It is a lot of work to prepare the waiver but I know in the end it will all be worthwhile. If he is eligible for a waiver she needs to start working on her hardship letter.

I done all of our paperwork without the assistance of a lawyer, but with the assistance of all the great people on this message board.

If you have any questions, please feel free to send me a message.

[gatita]

We're doing the fiancé process too. He was here illegally for seven years also. The only thing different is that he never had voluntary departure. We actually decided to have him leave a few months before our appointment to avoid any "unpleasant surprises." As the other members said, as long as he is eligible for the waiver and doesn't have a criminal record, he should be fine. I don't know where you live, but if the I-129F is sent to California to be processed it very likely will take at least several months longer than MiSantito's timeline. We filed at California and have not gotten our packet from CDJ to make the waiver appointment yet. The 9-10 months timeline that your lawyer gave you is reasonable, though. We also did not use a lawyer. We saw an immigration lawyer several years ago who gave us very incorrect information, so we're doing this ourselves.

[kitkat1]

I would really be very suspicious being told of any supposed changes with Fiance visas. I agree with getting him to explain it, in detail, and show you exactly where his information is coming from. The process is governed by immigration law - it's unlikely to change in a matter of months.

It's a two part process - length of time depends on how long petition processing in the US takes (often differs greatly by the service center which depends on where you live) and how long it takes for the consulate to process and send out the relevant paperwork based on the approved petition. If that goes quickly, it could be only a matter of months.

If his waiver is "clearly approvaable" via the pilot program, it will be aprpoved the same day as his waiver submissoin appointment, which is usually a few days after the visa interview where he will be denied. It's hard to know if that will happen with a voluntary departure - it may automatically be referred to the backlog to be further adjudicated. If it is referred to the backlog, it would be wise to count on about 10 months for adjudication.

So it seems like the lawyer has given fairly accurate information (assuming he has explained about the pilot program for waiver submission). You can also get a rough idea of how long petition processing will take by checking the processing dates on the USCIS service center status sites. You can get an idea of how the waiver adjudication backlog is and what month they are currently working on by checking the thread here - called something like "backlog in CDJ".